From:   Lycophidion <>
Sent time:   Saturday, October 22, 2011 11:32:00 AM
To:   september17 <>
Subject:   [september17discuss] For a long view...



Here's a scenario that I'm sure we've all considered. It gets colder

and colder in Zuccotti, and numbers begin to dwindle. At the same

time, the encampment may or may not become increasingly isolated. At a

certain critical mass, Bloomberg deems it viable to evict the

residents. There are other variables, including the morale of the

remaining residents and the impact police repression of this

hypothetical reduced and isolated group would have on the movement.


And I am basing this scenario on the existence of a very young, but

healthily squalling, social movement that Zuccotti helped spawn, but

is, now, independent of it.


And even movements have ups and downs. Thinking back on the antiwar

movement, it's easy to remember the ever larger demonstrations, the

collective milieu, the victories. But, in reality, the movement was

not an ascending curve, nor a geograpical location, but a spatially

and temporally uneven process, a long series of fits and starts and

ups and downs that produced a shift in consciousness and the balance

of social forces over many years. Months or even a year or two would

pass in which little happened (especially election years, which showed

that the rulers still controlled the game tempo and board). We are

just at the beginning of such a process.


If the above scenario is a possibility, it may be wise for OWSers to

make a contingency plan for an orderly retreat, on our own terms,

proclaiming tactical victory, when we reach a certain quantitative

tipping point. The movement continues. Actions will continue. And we

can retake this or other terrain at a propitious moment of our

choosing. To misuse Gramsci's terms, we would be converting a war of

positions into a war of movement.